
Me running for Governor of Maryland... pft... yea right.
On election night in 2000, candidates Al Gore and George W Bush awaited the returns in one of the closest elections in United States history. The polls were very tight in many battle ground states. Pundits pondered the possibility of a mathematical blip that would allow the winner of the electoral votes to lose the popular vote and still become president. Many considered the possibility and some were saying that yes, there was a chance, but somewhat low. Most of the statistical modelling that used polling data came up with a roughly 1 in a quarter chance of this situation (where the Obama-McCain election didn't have a single instance of this occurring in a 10,000 simulation run). As the polls came in, the numbers were extremely close, many states waited til far later than normal to report their numbers. Al Gore looked ready to take the White House as his margin in the popular vote grew. Of course, he knew that the popular vote wasn't technically what would win him the White House, but it is nice to have as in all but a couple elections, the winner of that vote DID win the White House. However, complications in Florida led to a one month recount challenge that remains very controversial. Democrats feel they were robbed of their vote and Al Gore unfairly lost an election where he earned one million more votes than his counterpart (and in the interest of transparency for you readers, I agree). In 2004, Kerry was looking for a similar break in Ohio and even though I voted for him, I agreed on principle that Bush was elected (unfortunately). I did hope that a second screwed up election in a row would unite the Republicans and Democrats into abolishing an archaic system. The arguments for keeping it are outdated and principally undemocratic.
The main argument is that the electoral college is there to protect the small states from being out voted by the big states. But to me thats a pointless argument. Why should small states have more proportional say than large states in NATIONAL matters. We are all equally affected by presidential decisions. There is no reason that a voter in Wyoming has basically 3 times the voting power than a Californian. This is a national vote and everyone should have a fair and EQUAL part in deciding the presidency. Yes... Wyoming is a small state and only has 3 electoral votes, but there are a great number of small states and they unfortunately have a disproportionately higher say. During the founding of this country, the electoral college made far more sense when vote counting would have taken too long and sending representatives to the capital made logical sense. At this point it was reasonable to send people to represent your populace to make a vote collectively. During this time, many people didn't really even know the platforms of the candidates (and in many cases who they even were) BUT they knew what they stood for and sent their representatives (in this case not the House Reps, but the electors) who understood what their voters were looking for and decided what was the best course of action. But as we've advanced and vote counting and campaign information became readily available, we've figured out that the electors were pointless. We no longer vote for electors like we used to and in many states, faithless electors are forbidden (voting independently of your voters). So why do we still have electoral votes!?!
Another "reason" for keeping the system is to force candidates to stop by small states to earn their votes (as they have a disproportionately higher say). Of course this has never in reality panned out. Many states, big and small are completely overlooked based on polling. A simple look at a campaign spending map will show you how much of the campaign really exists in less than 1/3 of the country. Obama AND McCain skipped many states. Some states haven't seen a Presidential candidate in decades. Abolition of the electoral college will force candidates to get votes from everywhere. Democrats wouldn'tt abandon cities like New Orleans because the state as whole is relatively red, and the same goes with cities like Austin, Atlanta, Memphis, Oklahoma City and so on. Republicans could target rural areas in relatively populous areas like Upstate New York (where "rural" is far more dense than "rural" South Dakota). If anything, the Electoral College limits prospective campaign stops. Even "safe areas" like NYC would still require Democrats to visit to maintain enthusiasm to make sure they have a lock on the millions of votes. Instead the Democrats can just rely on the "as long as we have more than them, we have the state" argument.
Others argue that abolishing the electoral college would create a city-oriented campaign. I see nothing wrong with that... people tend to live in cities. God forbid that where more people live, they have more power! Besides, its not like any of these rural districts aren't still political heavyweights in the House or Senate where they can eat all the pork they want (I'm looking at you Alaska).
One of the obvious problems with the electoral college is that it enforces the "auto-coalition system" (otherwise called the two party system). Since it requires a majority of the electoral votes to become president, third parties (or potential new parties) would have to fight an increasingly tough battle with each major candidate. This would force people to concede power and force an automatic coalition. In 2008, the Democrats had a tough fight over the nomination knowing full well they had to come to some agreement before the general election or lose to the Republicans. If we divided the Democrats into the two main constituents, the Blue Dog and Liberals, there would have been no hope against a single Republican candidate. But lets pretend that the divide in the Republican party was a bit more transparent (there was a divide, it just wasn't as visible; See enthusiasm gap). If there were 4 major candidates it would be unlikely that anyone would get the 270 or more to win the election. This would have gone to the "tie breaker" phase which would leave the party (or parties) in power in Congress with the keys to the election. 3rd Parties have no hope in getting into office under the electoral vote rules. Ross Perot had an impressive show at the ballot box in 1992 but failed to garner a single electoral vote. He received nearly 19% of the vote. Yes, of course he would have still lost but imagine if people voted how they really wanted to if the electoral math wasn't so against him.
Another ridiculous argument in support of the electoral college is that it neutralizes turn out disparities. Does anyone who truly believes in democracy find that insane!?! Too bad if one side came out more than the other! Thats how voting works! If you can't mobilize your voters to vote, than thats an issue with your platform and campaign, not the system. Minnesota pulled out the highest turnout in the nation at 78%. Arizona, which has the same number of electors at ten, had a turnout of just 56%. A 22% difference yet the implications in voting were exactly the same. Arizona neutralized Minnesotan voters. Hardly democratic in my book.
I'm not gonna go through some of the other arguments unless prodded. You get my drift in terms of how undemocratic and out of date the electoral college is.
This got me thinking. Gore lost to Bush despite having a 1 million vote margin nationally. Although in terms of elections, 1 million votes is chump change, a 1 million vote margin and STILL losing is a bit depressing and in my book morally wrong. One million people throughout the nation lost their voice because of a few hundred people in Florida. Illogical. But, I sat there wondering how high could this number theoretically be. 2 million? 5 million? So I decided to do a little model with these basic assumptions to find out the ABSOLUTE maximum (as of 2008) vote margin that you can win but still lose the presidency.
1. All Eligible voters turnout.
2. The bare minimum of 270 electoral votes to win
3. The electoral "loser" will receive all 100% of the votes in the state that he did win (that totaled 268 Electoral votes) He will earn 50%-1 in the "winning" candidates states.
4. The converse would be that the "winner" would win by a hair; 50%+1 and lose the other states entirely
5. There are no third parties
6. I am ignoring contemporary political trends and partisan identities. I.E. Any state can be won by either candidate.
7. I would add up the winner totaling the smallest electoral votes to reach 270.
So... some assumptions I had to add after doing the math...
7. Any state split in exactly in half would have the loser "lose" a vote to keep the margin at just 1 vote. Otherwise, the margin would be 2. Example, a 5-5 split would be turned into a 5-4 split. Otherwise it'd be a 6-4 split if it was a zero sum situation. Although this really doesn't matter cause this would only alter the final sum by a couple dozen votes.
8. Adding up the smallest states by electoral vote didn't get me to exactly 270. In order to get into EXACTLY to 270, I removed the largest state with electoral votes equal to the margin (this would eliminate the "overshoot") and further exaggerate the margin. Eliminating the smallest states to get to 270 would not maximize the losers numbers (as they have disproportionate say, I.E. more electoral votes per person than bigger states). In this case its Massachusetts.
Table 1: The Popular Vote Totals By State and Nationally
Figure 1: Popular Vote Percentages
As you can see, the numbers are staggering. The absolute maximum margin that someone could lose by in the popular vote and STILL win in 2008 was 113,425,484.
Yes... of course this is a very hypothetical situation. Of course you can't get everyone to vote, or everyone in a single state to vote one way. This is merely the hypothetical maximum boundary for the 2008 election. Of course naturally the numbers can only apply to the 2008 election due to differences in population, and reapportionment that occurs every ten years. There's probably some distribution of all possible scenarios that could come up with a "realistic maximum" at which the chance of winning an election without the popular vote would be...say... less than 25%. My guess is that this realistic maximum would be around 2.5% (where you will have a 25% chance of winning an election while losing the popular vote by 2.5%). Conversely, at 2.5% margin, 25% of the simulations would succeed in an election despite the loss (if given enough runs). Do I have any numbers to back this up... of course not thats just mere conjecture. I'm not a statistical genius so thats outside of my power. I presume that the 75-25 value would be pretty consistent throughout time fluctuating for the very reasons I explained up above but roughly around this area. Can you imagine the revolution if a candidate won the popular vote by 113 million votes.
There is one good thing about the Electoral College.... thats the nifty maps and often finding out who won before the final polls close. Take THAT parliamentary/unitary democracies!!!!