So its the first Tuesday of November... the day we hold our annual elections (although for completely different offices, unless its only for a one year term). After the undoubtedly historic election of 2008 and the turmoil that occurred concurrently and since, this election appeared to have snuck up on many of us, some even asking "What election?" Yes there is one and there are a number of races that were highly watched as they were labelled a "barometer" of Obama's presidency as Governor Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota put it. There were interesting races across the country from governorships to numerous municipal elections. I'll start with the big ones...

Virginia and New Jersey Governorships:
Before I get to each individual race, lets just analyze the current state of American politics, briefly of course. The big question is... Are these races in any way a referendum on Obama's Presidency. The answer, in my opinion is a simple no. Americans are GREAT at separating Federal and State Elections. Now I'm not discounting the existence of coattails... but thats usually a bigger phenomenon when the person pulling the coattails is ACTUALLY on the ballot. Obama is NOT on the ballot. Additionally... there are unique conditions in both Virginia and New Jersey that even I concede I don't have a clue about. Wins in the Republican column in no way mean anything in terms of Obama's Presidency. Lets put this in a simple caricature....

Lets leave the President and his current agenda and issues as is. Health Care Reform, Afghanistan, Iraq, and Climate Change bills being his main concerns. But say a state is choosing their governor.... do national issues ALWAYS trump local issues in elections? Of COURSE not. A state may be more concerned about slot machines, sales tax, budget crises and other things. There's a reason why we have a federal structure of government... issues are handled at different levels. So what may be the focus of the federal government it does not necessarily match state governments and I think most people realize that.  The election of a particular candidate at the state level does not mean that the approval or disapproval of the president has any bearing (especially since the powers of these two offices almost never overlap). 

Additionally... we are dealing with ACTUAL candidates in state elections. Its not "Obama's Party" v. "Not Obama's Party" (although after last years thwomping, it may seem that way). There are names and faces, debates and ads. State elections are inherently separate animals then their federal counterparts. ESPECIALLY when its an off year election as it is now. Off year elections almost ALWAYS favor the party NOT in power.

So specific to this year... What should we have expected before today... Voter turnout will be abysmal. I'm talking 20% in most places. This has very astounding effects. 
A) Federal elections get a lot more media attention and will attract more voters due to perceived "importance". What does this mean in terms of results. Biased sampling will be far more prevalent. Since people are not generally passionate about the off year elections, the people who DO turnout will not be representative of the population as a whole (sampling bias). The people who are more passionate will show up in greater numbers (and its usually the people who are not in power). The Republicans SHOULD do better in this election. 
B) Minority and Youth turnout is expected to be low. With 2008 numbers for both youths and minorities at record levels, it is only natural to see them collapse. But off years even more so. Older generations tend to vote with more regularity (only somewhat more). The enthusiasm gap that plagued Republicans last November is now reversed. Youths and minorities are not going to match the numbers they put up last year and never have come out in force on off years. Older white rural voters tend to have a greater share of the vote in off years. Again a plus for Republicans

So does this translate into wins in New Jersey and Virginia....

New Jersey:
Given Corzines approval ratings flirting with the freezing mark, yes, Christopher Christi should have one. Really, had Republicans put up a more qualified candidate who could articulate his thoughts (and apparently was skinnier), they would have solidly won this (easily by double digits). Corzines abysmal approval rating should have marked a tidal wave of votes for the Republicans and given the conditions of 2009, Christi's sub-50% win is actually disappointing. But, a W by a Republican in a blue state is still a good W. Besides, in non-Wave years, flips like this are rather pointless. Great, the GOP have a governor in New Jersey. Too bad he doesn't control the legislative agenda and his party is the minority in New Jersey. A pretty hollow victory.

Virginia:
Despite the rather large victory by Obama in 2008, Virgina is still a fairly red state. But as I pointed out earlier, this is not an Obama Referendum. The candidate the VA Democratic Party put up for governor was a poor candidate and may have lost for NOT being liberal ENOUGH and resulted in a piss poor enthusiasm in the Democratic base. When polls earlier this summer suggested a close race for tonight, instead of trying to enthuse his base and getting the Youth and Minority demographics out in force, he tried moving left of center suggesting he'd opt out of the public option being among his most controversial things. As McCain struggled with alienating his base (his TRUE moderate base), Deeds has repeated that problem. This and the off year election factors that favor the Republicans in 09, there is no surprise that Republicans won. 

Here's how it should be looked it... the Two Governorships falling into Republican hands SHOULD have occurred. If they didn't, that would have been a very large upset and would have spelled huge troubles for the Republican Party. So tonights victories, although still good, isn't stellar. 

The GOP should be worried about losing NY-23, a district that normally favors Republicans. But the confusing split in the Republican ranks may have just handed the election to the Democrats. A big loss indicative of the moderates becoming disillusioned with the Republican party and following Dede Scozzafava's advice of backing the Democratic just shows that the ideological split in the GOP can and will still spell trouble in 2010. This is a race that the Republicans should have held on to, but the Teabagging wing of the Republican Party has turned off many moderate Republicans. 

My local races:
Nothing terribly exciting in the Land of 10,000 Lakes. The mayors of Minneapolis and Saint Paul cruised to re-election by garnering nearly 70% of the vote in their respective cities. The big news of the day is that Minneapolis used Ranked Choice voting (instant runoff voting) and ran very smoothing and across the Mississippi, Saint Paul's voters voted to use this same system for future elections. The vote won with around 53% of the vote. 

Other major races include... 
Atlanta (First white female?)
Houston (First Openly gay mayor?)
The Gay Marriage referendum in Maine

As of the writing of this post, Atlanta and Houston were poised to make history. The Gay Marriage referendum may overturn the legislature's efforts to legalize gay marriage although a recount is possible in Maine. If there are any races anyone else wants to comment on ... go for it.

Shortly after 7 PM on the night of May 3, 1878, the largest mill in Minneapolis (and also the United States), the Washburn A mill, exploded decimating the Milling district and shattering large plate glass windows in the business district. Just 20 years after the founding of Minneapolis and the acceptance of Minnesota into the Union, the Great Mill Explosion was the first mammoth disaster to challenge the fledging settlement sending shockwaves into futures markets and receiving great notice from the East Coast cities like the New York Times. Minneapolis was just beginning to become the largest flour producer in the world due to its location on the Mississippi River near St. Anthony Falls as well as being close to the immigration hub of Saint Paul. A spark ignited the flour dust in the Washburn A Mill creating a massive explosion that would eventually decimate half of Minneapolis' milling capacity. The resulting fire further spread through the ruins completely decimating the damaged mills and threatening the extensive lumber yards further downriver (Minneapolis was the sawmill capital of the world at this time but it was on the downslope as forests were exhausted). 18 men died in the resulting explosion. Damage estimates put the total losses at over a million and a half in 1878.

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 I'd like to say Happy Belated Independence Day by telling Americans just how wrong they are when they say that the 4th of July commerates the day we "declared independence" or "the day we signed the Declaration of Independence" when in fact... neither is true (for the most part). 

So what really happened on the 4th of July? Well, you can hop over to wiki and read it yourself (link witheld so you can read further) or follow the previous parenthetically dilineated instructions... (as in read further). Its best easy to describe what DIDN'T happen on that day. First... we didn't declare independence on the 4th of July, that was really the 2nd of July. The Second Continental Congress had already resolved to declare independence on the 2nd, two days before our beloved brats, burgers, and beer commerated "Independence Day". So the document was signed on the 4th of July right? Nope... it was signed by most members on the 2nd of August, 1776. So what REALLY happened on the 4th....

We threw ourselves a sexy party! [/stewie griffin]

Nah, not really. What really happened was that the Second Continental Congress passed a resolution adopting the revised text of the Declaration of Independence. So really we are celebrating the "Act of the Second Continental Congress Agreeing to adopt the Declaration of Independence Which Was Signed At a Later Date Day". Happy Pseudo Birthday America!

Oh... and I had another thought....

In Minnesota its illegal to have any of the fun fireworks. Anything that explodes or launches of the ground so that the real stuff is supposedly reserved for professional shows. HA! Just driving a few miles you can see the plethara of fireworks from across all neighborhoods (they had spotter helicopters out to catch illegal fireworks in Saint Paul). But... really of all the things that best commerates the day, defying the law of the land is the most American thing to do on Independence Day, even if it is American laws :p. After all, the Day we celebrate defying British Rule is only appropriately marked by breaking a few rules now and then (I do not condone breaking the law however :P ). Anywho, the good thing about Minneapolis-Saint Paul is that even though its located in the MUCH cooler state of Minnesota, most of its residents (who live in either Rochester, the Twin Cities area, or Duluth) are in VERY close proximity to the border of Wisconsin, where they have more lax fireworks laws... HA! So despite not selling a single roman candle here, pretty much everyone had them anyway. Driving in from the family reunion and my friends birthday celebrations, I could see SOOOO many fireworks 3 hours before sunset to the point that visibility was dramatically reduce and there was an Air Quality Alert issued due to the smoke. Between the Capitol Fireworks, "Red White and Boom!", the Taste of Minnesota, and the Hmong International Sports Tournament, there were LOADS of explosions rocking the city. Its quite fun, even if you can hear a few misfire in your general direction. :) 

Here's the finale from the Taste of Minnesota. This was taken from my neighborhood on the edge of Cathedral Hill sloping down towards Downtown Saint Paul and the Xcel Energy Center.

And lets be mature folks, I don't need to hear "Oh, thats it?" or "We have better fireworks than that!". A ) I don't care, B) If your city's worth depends on the awesomeness of your fireworks display, then THANK GOD I don't live there :p.